TD - The Toronto-Dominion Bank
Price:
--
--
|
CONSENSUS:
Buy
DETAILS
|
PRICE TARGET:
$89.52
DETAILS
HIGH:
$91.51
LOW:
$87.53
MEDIAN:
$89.52
CONSENSUS:
$89.52
DOWNSIDE:
19.98%
AlphaVal
Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
90% confidence
Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Adjust Assumptions
19.5%
9.1%
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (19.5%) vs. cost of equity (9.1%)
Implied Market Multiple
2.48x
Plain-Language Summary
Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $89.52 from 17 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $125.55 per share.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Dividend-based valuation: $49.69 (64% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Wall Street's average price target is $89.52 (from 17 analysts). Our estimate is 54% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Financial statements were converted from CAD into USD using USDCAD at 0.7241 USD per CAD.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly