AlphaMadera's AlphaVal page classifies The Toronto-Dominion Bank as a Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers business and values it using P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality, then compares the result to the current market price to flag TD as undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued.

What is The Toronto-Dominion Bank's fair value?

Fair value for TD comes from a P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality model -- the approach AlphaVal selected for this company's Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers classification. The live AlphaVal page shows bear, base, and bull scenarios alongside the key assumption behind each.

How does AlphaMadera value TD?

AlphaVal routes each company to one of ten valuation archetypes based on its business model. TD was classified as Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers and is valued using P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality, built from TD's most recent reported fundamentals.

TD - The Toronto-Dominion Bank

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS | PRICE TARGET: $89.52 DETAILS

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 90% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild

Trading 11.8% below fair value

Current Price $121.63

Bear Case $94.56 22.3% downside ($94.56 - $121.63) / $121.63 = -22.3% ROTCE 14.6% → 2.10x TBV

Fair Value $137.96 13.4% upside ($137.96 - $121.63) / $121.63 = 13.4% ROTCE 19.5% → 3.06x TBV

Bull Case $164.00 34.8% upside ($164.00 - $121.63) / $121.63 = 34.8% ROTCE 22.4% → 3.63x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

Return on Tangible Equity

19.5%

Cost of Equity

9.1%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (19.5%) vs. cost of equity (9.1%)

Terminal Value % of EV

Implied Market Multiple 2.7x

Market is pricing in (growth)

Plain-Language Summary

With ROTCE of 19.5% vs. 9.1% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 3.06x on $45.12 tangible book, implying $137.96 per share. DDM cross-check: $52.27.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (17 analysts) $89.52

Analyst Range $87.53 – $91.51

Divergence from AlphaVal 54%

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.

⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.

ℹ Dividend-based valuation: $52.27 (62% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.

ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $89.52 (from 17 analysts). Our estimate is 54% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

ℹ Financial statements were converted from CAD into USD using USDCAD at 0.7231 USD per CAD.

Key Risks

Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly