Trulieve Cannabis Corp. logo TCNNF - Trulieve Cannabis Corp.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 9
HOLD 0
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $47.21 DETAILS
HIGH: $65.00
LOW: $18.00
MEDIAN: $52.92
CONSENSUS: $47.21
UPSIDE: 529.47%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 85% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 60.1% below fair value
Current Price $7.50
Bear Case $18.79 150.6% upside ($18.79 - $7.50) / $7.50 = 150.6% 3% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair Value $18.79 150.6% upside ($18.79 - $7.50) / $7.50 = 150.6% 3% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull Case $20.22 169.7% upside ($20.22 - $7.50) / $7.50 = 169.7% 4% stage 1 growth, 12% discount

Adjust Assumptions

3.0%
12.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (3% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 28%
Implied Market Multiple 8.0x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $47.21 from 9 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $18.79 per share.

Warnings

ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $47.21 (from 9 analysts). Our estimate is 75% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions