AlphaMadera's AlphaVal page classifies Third Coast Bancshares, Inc. as a Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers business and values it using P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality, then compares the result to the current market price to flag TCBX as undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued.

What is Third Coast Bancshares, Inc.'s fair value?

Fair value for TCBX comes from a P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality model -- the approach AlphaVal selected for this company's Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers classification. The live AlphaVal page shows bear, base, and bull scenarios alongside the key assumption behind each.

How does AlphaMadera value TCBX?

AlphaVal routes each company to one of ten valuation archetypes based on its business model. TCBX was classified as Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers and is valued using P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality, built from TCBX's most recent reported fundamentals.

TCBX - Third Coast Bancshares, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS | PRICE TARGET: $49.00 DETAILS

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong

Trading 47.1% below fair value

Current Price $44.83

Bear Case $54.10 20.7% upside ($54.10 - $44.83) / $44.83 = 20.7% ROTCE 9.7% → 1.49x TBV

Fair Value $84.78 89.1% upside ($84.78 - $44.83) / $44.83 = 89.1% ROTCE 12.9% → 2.33x TBV

Bull Case $103.18 130.2% upside ($103.18 - $44.83) / $44.83 = 130.2% ROTCE 14.9% → 2.84x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

Return on Tangible Equity

12.9%

Cost of Equity

7.8%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (12.9%) vs. cost of equity (7.8%)

Terminal Value % of EV

Implied Market Multiple 1.23x

Market is pricing in (growth)

Plain-Language Summary

With ROTCE of 12.9% vs. 7.8% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 2.33x on $36.33 tangible book, implying $84.78 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (5 analysts) $49.00

Analyst Range $45.00 – $53.00

Divergence from AlphaVal 73%

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.

⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.

ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $49.00 (from 5 analysts). Our estimate is 73% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly