Texas Capital Bancshares, Inc. logo TCBI - Texas Capital Bancshares, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 10
HOLD 24
SELL 5
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $106.17 DETAILS
HIGH: $114.00
LOW: $100.00
MEDIAN: $104.50
CONSENSUS: $106.17
UPSIDE: 6.82%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild
Trading 5.0% below fair value
Current Price $99.39
Bear Case $57.92 41.7% downside ($57.92 - $99.39) / $99.39 = -41.7% ROTCE 6.8% → 0.69x TBV
Fair Value $104.57 5.2% upside ($104.57 - $99.39) / $99.39 = 5.2% ROTCE 9.1% → 1.25x TBV
Bull Case $132.58 33.4% upside ($132.58 - $99.39) / $99.39 = 33.4% ROTCE 10.5% → 1.58x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

9.1%
8.1%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (9.1%) vs. cost of equity (8.1%)

Implied Market Multiple 1.2x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $106.17 from 39 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $104.57 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly