Texas Capital Bancshares, Inc. logo TCBI - Texas Capital Bancshares, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 10
HOLD 25
SELL 4
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $107.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $114.00
LOW: $100.00
MEDIAN: $107.00
CONSENSUS: $107.00
DOWNSIDE: 0.69%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Overvalued Mild
Trading 1.4% above fair value
Current Price $107.74
Bear Case $58.83 45.4% downside ($58.83 - $107.74) / $107.74 = -45.4% ROTCE 6.8% → 0.71x TBV
Fair Value $106.22 1.4% downside ($106.22 - $107.74) / $107.74 = -1.4% ROTCE 9.1% → 1.27x TBV
Bull Case $134.66 25.0% upside ($134.66 - $107.74) / $107.74 = 25.0% ROTCE 10.5% → 1.62x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

9.1%
8.0%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (9.1%) vs. cost of equity (8.0%)

Implied Market Multiple 1.3x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $107.00 from 39 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $106.22 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly