TBPH - Theravance Biopharma Inc
Price:
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CONSENSUS:
Hold
DETAILS
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PRICE TARGET:
$15.50
DETAILS
HIGH:
$17.00
LOW:
$14.00
MEDIAN:
$15.50
CONSENSUS:
$15.50
DOWNSIDE:
9.06%
AlphaVal
Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value
Platform & Compounding FCF
80% confidence
Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF
Adjust Assumptions
3.0%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (3% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
33%
Implied Market Multiple
2.8x
Market is pricing in (growth)
-20.8%
vs our 3.0% base
Plain-Language Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 3% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $60.93 per share.
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.
Average Target (17 analysts)
$15.50
Analyst Range
$14.00 – $17.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
293%
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $15.50 (from 17 analysts). Our estimate is 293% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions