Theravance Biopharma, Inc. logo TBPH - Theravance Biopharma, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 6
HOLD 7
SELL 3
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $27.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $40.00
LOW: $14.00
MEDIAN: $27.00
CONSENSUS: $27.00
UPSIDE: 64.94%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 80% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 79.5% below fair value
Current Price $16.37
Bear Case $60.57 270.0% upside ($60.57 - $16.37) / $16.37 = 270.0% 6% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $79.76 387.2% upside ($79.76 - $16.37) / $16.37 = 387.2% 10% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $98.50 501.7% upside ($98.50 - $16.37) / $16.37 = 501.7% 13% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

9.8%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (10% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 39%
Implied Market Multiple 2.7x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $27.00 from 16 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $79.76 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $27.00 (from 16 analysts). Our estimate is 261% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions