Theravance Biopharma Inc logo TBPH - Theravance Biopharma Inc

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 4
HOLD 10
SELL 3
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $15.50 DETAILS
HIGH: $17.00
LOW: $14.00
MEDIAN: $15.50
CONSENSUS: $15.50
DOWNSIDE: 8.45%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 70.1% below fair value
Current Price $16.93
Bear Case $48.50 186.5% upside ($48.50 - $16.93) / $16.93 = 186.5% $4.60 × 13x P/E
Fair Value $56.59 234.2% upside ($56.59 - $16.93) / $16.93 = 234.2% $4.60 × 15x P/E
Bull Case $64.67 282.0% upside ($64.67 - $16.93) / $16.93 = 282.0% $4.60 × 17x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

15.3x
4.6$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 3.7x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $15.50 from 17 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $56.59 per share.

Warnings

The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 123%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
Wall Street's average price target is $15.50 (from 17 analysts). Our estimate is 353% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples