Theravance Biopharma Inc logo TBPH - Theravance Biopharma Inc

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 4
HOLD 10
SELL 3
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $15.50 DETAILS
HIGH: $17.00
LOW: $14.00
MEDIAN: $15.50
CONSENSUS: $15.50
DOWNSIDE: 9.06%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 80% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 72.0% below fair value
Current Price $17.05
Bear Case $60.93 257.5% upside ($60.93 - $17.05) / $17.05 = 257.5% 3% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $60.93 257.5% upside ($60.93 - $17.05) / $17.05 = 257.5% 3% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $64.73 279.8% upside ($64.73 - $17.05) / $17.05 = 279.8% 4% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

3.0%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (3% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 33%
Implied Market Multiple 2.8x
Market is pricing in (growth) -20.8% vs our 3.0% base

Plain-Language Summary

Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 3% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $60.93 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (17 analysts) $15.50
Analyst Range $14.00 – $17.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 293%

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $15.50 (from 17 analysts). Our estimate is 293% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions