Turtle Beach Corporation logo TBCH - Turtle Beach Corporation

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 5
HOLD 1
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $15.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $15.00
LOW: $15.00
MEDIAN: $15.00
CONSENSUS: $15.00
UPSIDE: 15.38%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 50% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Undervalued Moderate
Trading 28.9% below fair value
Current Price $13.00
Bear Case $14.40 10.7% upside ($14.40 - $13.00) / $13.00 = 10.7% 4% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair Value $18.27 40.6% upside ($18.27 - $13.00) / $13.00 = 40.6% 7% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull Case $21.78 67.5% upside ($21.78 - $13.00) / $13.00 = 67.5% 9% stage 1 growth, 12% discount

Adjust Assumptions

7.0%
12.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (7% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 32%
Implied Market Multiple 11.1x
Market is pricing in (growth) 2.5% vs our 7.0% base

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $15.00 from 6 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $18.27 per share.

Warnings

Stock-based employee pay equals 39% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $15.00 (from 6 analysts). Our estimate is 27% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions