The Bancorp, Inc. logo TBBK - The Bancorp, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
1
BUY 6
HOLD 0
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $87.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $88.00
LOW: $86.00
MEDIAN: $87.00
CONSENSUS: $87.00
UPSIDE: 32.42%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild
Trading 14.4% below fair value
Current Price $65.70
Bear Case $53.75 18.2% downside ($53.75 - $65.70) / $65.70 = -18.2% ROTCE 20.0% → 2.33x TBV
Fair Value $76.78 16.9% upside ($76.78 - $65.70) / $65.70 = 16.9% ROTCE 25.0% → 3.06x TBV
Bull Case $99.81 51.9% upside ($99.81 - $65.70) / $65.70 = 51.9% ROTCE 30.0% → 3.79x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

33.1%
10.9%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (33.1%) vs. cost of equity (10.9%)

Implied Market Multiple 3.97x

Plain-Language Summary

With ROTCE of 33.1% vs. 10.9% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 3.06x on $16.55 tangible book, implying $76.78 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (7 analysts) $87.00
Analyst Range $86.00 – $88.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 12%

Warnings

Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly