BBB Foods Inc. logo TBBB - BBB Foods Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 5
HOLD 2
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $45.20 DETAILS
HIGH: $48.00
LOW: $42.00
MEDIAN: $46.00
CONSENSUS: $45.20
UPSIDE: 13.25%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 85% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Overvalued Mild
Trading 9.7% above fair value
Current Price $39.91
Bear Case $17.57 56.0% downside ($17.57 - $39.91) / $39.91 = -56.0% 12% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $36.38 8.8% downside ($36.38 - $39.91) / $39.91 = -8.8% 20% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $60.00 50.4% upside ($60.00 - $39.91) / $39.91 = 50.4% 26% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

20.0%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (20% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 46%
Implied Market Multiple 52.5x
Market is pricing in (growth) 21.8% vs our 20.0% base

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $45.20 from 7 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $36.38 per share.

Warnings

ℹ Financial statements were converted from MXN into USD using USDMXN at 0.0573 USD per MXN.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions