BBB Foods Inc. logo TBBB - BBB Foods Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 4
HOLD 3
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $44.75 DETAILS
HIGH: $48.00
LOW: $42.00
MEDIAN: $44.50
CONSENSUS: $44.75
UPSIDE: 21.80%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 85% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Overvalued Mild
Trading 0.7% above fair value
Current Price $36.74
Bear Case $17.62 52.0% downside ($17.62 - $36.74) / $36.74 = -52.0% 12% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $36.47 0.7% downside ($36.47 - $36.74) / $36.74 = -0.7% 20% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $60.14 63.7% upside ($60.14 - $36.74) / $36.74 = 63.7% 26% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

20.0%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (20% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 46%
Implied Market Multiple 48.5x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $44.75 from 7 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $36.47 per share.

Warnings

ℹ Financial statements were converted from MXN into USD using USDMXN at 0.0577 USD per MXN.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions