AT&T Inc. 5.35% GLB NTS 66 logo TBB - AT&T Inc. 5.35% GLB NTS 66

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 4
HOLD 5
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $21.29 DETAILS
HIGH: $24.00
LOW: $17.00
MEDIAN: $22.00
CONSENSUS: $21.29
UPSIDE: 1.48%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 65% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 50.1% below fair value
Current Price $20.98
Bear Case $33.66 60.4% upside ($33.66 - $20.98) / $20.98 = 60.4% $3.11 × 12x P/E
Fair Value $42.08 100.6% upside ($42.08 - $20.98) / $20.98 = 100.6% $3.11 × 15x P/E
Bull Case $50.50 140.7% upside ($50.50 - $20.98) / $20.98 = 140.7% $3.11 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

15.2x
3.11$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 6.7x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $21.29 from 9 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $42.08 per share.

Warnings

Dividend-based valuation: $19.30 (below our primary estimate by 59%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Wall Street's average price target is $21.29 (from 9 analysts). Our estimate is 122% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples