Molson Coors Beverage Company logo TAP - Molson Coors Beverage Company

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 11
HOLD 20
SELL 6
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $47.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $58.00
LOW: $40.00
MEDIAN: $45.00
CONSENSUS: $47.00
UPSIDE: 10.46%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 50% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild
Trading 3.3% below fair value
Current Price $42.55
Bear Case $43.98 3.4% upside ($43.98 - $42.55) / $42.55 = 3.4% 3% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $43.98 3.4% upside ($43.98 - $42.55) / $42.55 = 3.4% 3% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $48.96 15.1% upside ($48.96 - $42.55) / $42.55 = 15.1% 4% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

3.0%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (3% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 33%
Implied Market Multiple 12.8x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $47.00 from 37 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $43.98 per share.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions