Talkspace, Inc. logo TALK - Talkspace, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 2
HOLD 8
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $5.25 DETAILS
HIGH: $5.25
LOW: $5.25
MEDIAN: $5.25
CONSENSUS: $5.25
UPSIDE: 0.96%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 187.3% above fair value
Current Price $5.20
Bear Case $1.45 72.2% downside ($1.45 - $5.20) / $5.20 = -72.2% $0.04 × 18x P/E
Fair Value $1.81 65.2% downside ($1.81 - $5.20) / $5.20 = -65.2% $0.04 × 22x P/E
Bull Case $2.17 58.2% downside ($2.17 - $5.20) / $5.20 = -58.2% $0.04 × 27x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

22.5x
0.04$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (22x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 123.4x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $5.25 from 10 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $1.81 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $5.25 (from 10 analysts). Our estimate is 82% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples