AlphaMadera's AlphaVal page computes TransAlta Corporation's fair value using a multi-method blend (DCF, comparable-multiples, and Graham-style intrinsic value), then compares it to the current market price to flag TAC as undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued.

What is TransAlta Corporation's fair value?

Fair value for TAC is a model output combining discounted cash flow projections, peer-group multiples, and a Graham number floor. The live AlphaVal page shows the blended fair value alongside each method's individual estimate.

How does AlphaMadera value TAC?

AlphaVal uses three primary techniques: a five-year discounted-cash-flow projection with terminal multiple, peer-group multiple analysis (P/E, EV/EBITDA, P/S), and Graham's defensive-investor intrinsic-value formula. Inputs come from TAC's most recent reported fundamentals.

TAC - TransAlta Corporation

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS | PRICE TARGET: $25.00 DETAILS

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 40% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Mild

Trading 1.7% above fair value

Current Price $12.74

Bear Case $10.25 19.5% downside ($10.25 - $12.74) / $12.74 = -19.5% $0.43 × 18x P/E

Fair Value $12.53 1.7% downside ($12.53 - $12.74) / $12.74 = -1.7% $0.43 × 22x P/E

Bull Case $14.82 16.3% upside ($14.82 - $12.74) / $12.74 = 16.3% $0.43 × 26x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

P/E Multiple

22.0x

Adjusted EPS

0.43$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (22x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 29.8x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $25.00 from 9 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $12.53 per share.

Warnings

ℹ Dividend-based valuation: $5.83 (below our primary estimate by 38%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.

ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $25.00 (from 9 analysts). Our estimate is 62% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

ℹ Financial statements were converted from CAD into USD using USDCAD at 0.7093 USD per CAD.

Key Risks

Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples