Sizzle Acquisition Corp. II logo SZZL - Sizzle Acquisition Corp. II

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AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 40% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 89.4% above fair value
Current Price $10.51
Bear Case $4.44 57.8% downside ($4.44 - $10.51) / $10.51 = -57.8% $0.37 × 12x P/E
Fair Value $5.55 47.2% downside ($5.55 - $10.51) / $10.51 = -47.2% $0.37 × 15x P/E
Bull Case $6.66 36.6% downside ($6.66 - $10.51) / $10.51 = -36.6% $0.37 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

15.0x
0.37$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 28.4x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $0.37, the base-case value is $5.55 per share.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples