Sysco Corporation logo SYY - Sysco Corporation

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 18
HOLD 9
SELL 3
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $85.75 DETAILS
HIGH: $90.00
LOW: $84.00
MEDIAN: $84.50
CONSENSUS: $85.75
UPSIDE: 8.54%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Mild
Trading 12.8% above fair value
Current Price $79.00
Bear Case $57.67 27.0% downside ($57.67 - $79.00) / $79.00 = -27.0% $3.66 × 16x P/E
Fair Value $70.03 11.4% downside ($70.03 - $79.00) / $79.00 = -11.4% $3.66 × 19x P/E
Bull Case $82.39 4.3% upside ($82.39 - $79.00) / $79.00 = 4.3% $3.66 × 23x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

19.1x
3.66$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (19x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 21.6x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 19x P/E to adjusted EPS of $3.66, the base-case value is $70.03 per share. DDM cross-check: $41.20.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (30 analysts) $85.75
Analyst Range $84.00 – $90.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 18%

Warnings

ℹ Dividend-based valuation: $41.20 (below our primary estimate by 41%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples