Stock Yards Bancorp, Inc. logo SYBT - Stock Yards Bancorp, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 2
HOLD 9
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $85.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $90.00
LOW: $78.00
MEDIAN: $87.00
CONSENSUS: $85.00
UPSIDE: 6.61%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild
Trading 10.1% below fair value
Current Price $79.73
Bear Case $59.33 25.6% downside ($59.33 - $79.73) / $79.73 = -25.6% ROTCE 12.2% → 2.04x TBV
Fair Value $88.71 11.3% upside ($88.71 - $79.73) / $79.73 = 11.3% ROTCE 16.3% → 3.05x TBV
Bull Case $106.34 33.4% upside ($106.34 - $79.73) / $79.73 = 33.4% ROTCE 18.8% → 3.65x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

16.3%
8.0%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (16.3%) vs. cost of equity (8.0%)

Implied Market Multiple 2.74x

Plain-Language Summary

With ROTCE of 16.3% vs. 8.0% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 3.05x on $29.11 tangible book, implying $88.71 per share. DDM cross-check: $24.73.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (11 analysts) $85.00
Analyst Range $78.00 – $90.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 4%

Warnings

Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Dividend-based valuation: $24.73 (72% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly