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Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 8
HOLD 4
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $140.67 DETAILS
HIGH: $157.00
LOW: $125.00
MEDIAN: $140.00
CONSENSUS: $140.67
UPSIDE: 6.42%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 65% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 178.9% above fair value
Current Price $132.19
Bear Case $37.92 71.3% downside ($37.92 - $132.19) / $132.19 = -71.3% $3.16 × 12x P/E
Fair Value $47.40 64.1% downside ($47.40 - $132.19) / $132.19 = -64.1% $3.16 × 15x P/E
Bull Case $56.88 57.0% downside ($56.88 - $132.19) / $132.19 = -57.0% $3.16 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

15.0x
3.16$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 41.8x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $3.16, the base-case value is $47.40 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (12 analysts) $140.67
Analyst Range $125.00 – $157.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 66%

Warnings

ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $140.67 (from 12 analysts). Our estimate is 66% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples