SunCoke Energy, Inc. logo SXC - SunCoke Energy, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 8
HOLD 7
SELL 2
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $9.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $9.00
LOW: $9.00
MEDIAN: $9.00
CONSENSUS: $9.00
UPSIDE: 7.53%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 50% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 49.3% below fair value
Current Price $8.37
Bear Case $12.51 49.4% upside ($12.51 - $8.37) / $8.37 = 49.4% 4% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $16.50 97.1% upside ($16.50 - $8.37) / $8.37 = 97.1% 7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $20.09 140.0% upside ($20.09 - $8.37) / $8.37 = 140.0% 9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

6.6%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (7% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 36%
Implied Market Multiple 9.9x
Market is pricing in (growth) -0.6% vs our 6.6% base

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $9.00 from 17 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $16.50 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $9.00 (from 17 analysts). Our estimate is 111% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions