Southwest Gas Holdings, Inc. logo SWX - Southwest Gas Holdings, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 7
HOLD 3
SELL 3
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $100.33 DETAILS
HIGH: $105.00
LOW: $96.00
MEDIAN: $100.00
CONSENSUS: $100.33
UPSIDE: 11.59%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild
Trading 8.2% below fair value
Current Price $89.91
Bear Case $85.65 4.7% downside ($85.65 - $89.91) / $89.91 = -4.7% $6.08 × 14x P/E
Fair Value $97.89 8.9% upside ($97.89 - $89.91) / $89.91 = 8.9% $6.08 × 16x P/E
Bull Case $110.13 22.5% upside ($110.13 - $89.91) / $89.91 = 22.5% $6.08 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

16.0x
6.08$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 14.8x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $100.33 from 13 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $97.89 per share.

Warnings

ℹ Dividend-based valuation: $36.14 (below our primary estimate by 63%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples