SWKS - Skyworks Solutions, Inc.
Price:
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CONSENSUS:
Buy
DETAILS
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PRICE TARGET:
$71.75
DETAILS
HIGH:
$85.00
LOW:
$52.00
MEDIAN:
$70.00
CONSENSUS:
$71.75
DOWNSIDE:
21.43%
AlphaVal
Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value
Cyclical & Capital-Intensive
80% confidence
Primary model: Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple
Adjust Assumptions
16.0x
6.13$
Key Value Driver
Through-cycle normalized EPS ($6.13)
Implied Market Multiple
14.9x
Plain-Language Summary
Using 7-year normalized EPS of $6.13 at a 16x cycle multiple, the base-case value is $98.08 per share. P/TBV cross-check: 5.0x.
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.
Average Target (60 analysts)
$71.75
Analyst Range
$52.00 – $85.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
37%
Warnings
Price-to-book value of 5.0x is above the normal range for this type of business (0.7x-2.0x). The stock may already price in a strong cycle.
Wall Street's average price target is $71.75 (from 60 analysts). Our estimate is 37% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Standard 10-year DCF produces unreliable terminal values for cyclicals
- 'Cheap' P/E at cycle peak is the most common value trap — normalize first
- Captive finance subsidiaries have different risk profiles from manufacturing