Skyworks Solutions, Inc. logo SWKS - Skyworks Solutions, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 35
HOLD 23
SELL 2
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $71.75 DETAILS
HIGH: $85.00
LOW: $52.00
MEDIAN: $70.00
CONSENSUS: $71.75
DOWNSIDE: 21.43%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Cyclical & Capital-Intensive 80% confidence

Primary model: Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild
Trading 6.9% below fair value
Current Price $91.32
Bear Case $73.56 19.4% downside ($73.56 - $91.32) / $91.32 = -19.4% $6.13 × 12x
Fair Value $98.08 7.4% upside ($98.08 - $91.32) / $91.32 = 7.4% $6.13 × 16x
Bull Case $122.60 34.3% upside ($122.60 - $91.32) / $91.32 = 34.3% $6.13 × 20x

Adjust Assumptions

16.0x
6.13$

Key Value Driver

Through-cycle normalized EPS ($6.13)

Implied Market Multiple 14.9x

Plain-Language Summary

Using 7-year normalized EPS of $6.13 at a 16x cycle multiple, the base-case value is $98.08 per share. P/TBV cross-check: 5.0x.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (60 analysts) $71.75
Analyst Range $52.00 – $85.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 37%

Warnings

Price-to-book value of 5.0x is above the normal range for this type of business (0.7x-2.0x). The stock may already price in a strong cycle.
Wall Street's average price target is $71.75 (from 60 analysts). Our estimate is 37% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Standard 10-year DCF produces unreliable terminal values for cyclicals
  • 'Cheap' P/E at cycle peak is the most common value trap — normalize first
  • Captive finance subsidiaries have different risk profiles from manufacturing