Skyworks Solutions, Inc. logo SWKS - Skyworks Solutions, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 35
HOLD 23
SELL 2
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $72.38 DETAILS
HIGH: $85.00
LOW: $52.00
MEDIAN: $71.00
CONSENSUS: $72.38
UPSIDE: 18.09%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Cyclical & Capital-Intensive 80% confidence

Primary model: Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Moderate
Trading 31.8% below fair value
Current Price $61.29
Bear Case $67.63 10.3% upside ($67.63 - $61.29) / $61.29 = 10.3% $6.13 × 12x + net cash
Fair Value $89.83 46.6% upside ($89.83 - $61.29) / $61.29 = 46.6% $6.13 × 16x + net cash
Bull Case $112.02 82.8% upside ($112.02 - $61.29) / $61.29 = 82.8% $6.13 × 20x + net cash

Adjust Assumptions

16.0x
6.13$

Key Value Driver

Through-cycle normalized EPS ($6.13)

Implied Market Multiple 10.0x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $72.38 from 60 analysts, using a 35% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $89.83 per share.

Warnings

Price-to-book value of 3.3x is above the normal range for this type of business (0.7x-2.0x). The stock may already price in a strong cycle.
Wall Street's average price target is $72.38 (from 60 analysts). Our estimate is 37% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Standard 10-year DCF produces unreliable terminal values for cyclicals
  • 'Cheap' P/E at cycle peak is the most common value trap — normalize first
  • Captive finance subsidiaries have different risk profiles from manufacturing