AlphaMadera's AlphaVal page computes Smith & Wesson Brands, Inc.'s fair value using a multi-method blend (DCF, comparable-multiples, and Graham-style intrinsic value), then compares it to the current market price to flag SWBI as undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued.

What is Smith & Wesson Brands, Inc.'s fair value?

Fair value for SWBI is a model output combining discounted cash flow projections, peer-group multiples, and a Graham number floor. The live AlphaVal page shows the blended fair value alongside each method's individual estimate.

How does AlphaMadera value SWBI?

AlphaVal uses three primary techniques: a five-year discounted-cash-flow projection with terminal multiple, peer-group multiple analysis (P/E, EV/EBITDA, P/S), and Graham's defensive-investor intrinsic-value formula. Inputs come from SWBI's most recent reported fundamentals.

SWBI - Smith & Wesson Brands, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS | PRICE TARGET: $15.25 DETAILS

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Cyclical & Capital-Intensive 80% confidence

Primary model: Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong

Trading 41.2% below fair value

Current Price $15.47

Bear Case $21.17 36.9% upside ($21.17 - $15.47) / $15.47 = 36.9% $1.29 × 18x + net cash

Fair Value $26.32 70.2% upside ($26.32 - $15.47) / $15.47 = 70.2% $1.29 × 22x + net cash

Bull Case $31.48 103.5% upside ($31.48 - $15.47) / $15.47 = 103.5% $1.29 × 26x + net cash

Adjust Assumptions

Cycle P/E Multiple

22.0x

Normalized EPS

1.29$

Key Value Driver

Through-cycle normalized EPS ($1.29)

Implied Market Multiple 12.0x

Plain-Language Summary

Using 7-year normalized EPS of $1.29 at a 22x cycle multiple, the base-case value is $26.32 per share. P/TBV cross-check: 2.0x.

Key Risks

Standard 10-year DCF produces unreliable terminal values for cyclicals
'Cheap' P/E at cycle peak is the most common value trap — normalize first
Captive finance subsidiaries have different risk profiles from manufacturing