AlphaMadera's AlphaVal page classifies Smith & Wesson Brands, Inc. as a Cyclical & Capital-Intensive business and values it using Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple, then compares the result to the current market price to flag SWBI as undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued.

What is Smith & Wesson Brands, Inc.'s fair value?

Fair value for SWBI comes from a Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple model -- the approach AlphaVal selected for this company's Cyclical & Capital-Intensive classification. The live AlphaVal page shows bear, base, and bull scenarios alongside the key assumption behind each.

How does AlphaMadera value SWBI?

AlphaVal routes each company to one of ten valuation archetypes based on its business model. SWBI was classified as Cyclical & Capital-Intensive and is valued using Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple, built from SWBI's most recent reported fundamentals.

SWBI - Smith & Wesson Brands, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS | PRICE TARGET: $16.50 DETAILS

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Cyclical & Capital-Intensive 80% confidence

Primary model: Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong

Trading 51.7% below fair value

Current Price $13.71

Bear Case $23.22 69.4% upside ($23.22 - $13.71) / $13.71 = 69.4% $1.29 × 18x

Fair Value $28.38 107.0% upside ($28.38 - $13.71) / $13.71 = 107.0% $1.29 × 22x

Bull Case $33.54 144.6% upside ($33.54 - $13.71) / $13.71 = 144.6% $1.29 × 26x

Adjust Assumptions

Cycle P/E Multiple

22.0x

Normalized EPS

1.29$

Key Value Driver

Through-cycle normalized EPS ($1.29)

Terminal Value % of EV

Implied Market Multiple 10.6x

Market is pricing in (growth)

Plain-Language Summary

Using 7-year normalized EPS of $1.29 at a 22x cycle multiple, the base-case value is $28.38 per share. P/TBV cross-check: 1.7x.

Warnings

Key Risks

Standard 10-year DCF produces unreliable terminal values for cyclicals
'Cheap' P/E at cycle peak is the most common value trap — normalize first
Captive finance subsidiaries have different risk profiles from manufacturing