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AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 57.2% below fair value
Current Price $8.59
Bear Case $17.55 104.4% upside ($17.55 - $8.59) / $8.59 = 104.4% $1.17 × 15x P/E
Fair Value $20.06 133.6% upside ($20.06 - $8.59) / $8.59 = 133.6% $1.17 × 17x P/E
Bull Case $22.57 162.7% upside ($22.57 - $8.59) / $8.59 = 162.7% $1.17 × 19x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

17.2x
1.17$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (17x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 7.4x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 17x P/E to adjusted EPS of $1.17, the base-case value is $20.06 per share. DDM cross-check: $85.55.

Warnings

ℹ Dividend-based valuation: $85.55 (above our primary estimate by 326%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
ℹ Financial statements were converted from PHP into USD using USDPHP at 0.0157 USD per PHP.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples