Sun Communities, Inc. logo SUI - Sun Communities, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 13
HOLD 5
SELL 3
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $141.63 DETAILS
HIGH: $150.00
LOW: $133.00
MEDIAN: $141.00
CONSENSUS: $141.63
UPSIDE: 19.14%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Real Estate Investment Trust 85% confidence

Primary model: P/FFO × Residential REIT Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 54.7% below fair value
Current Price $118.88
Bear Case $221.12 86.0% upside ($221.12 - $118.88) / $118.88 = 86.0% $15.27 FFO × 21x
Fair Value $262.26 120.6% upside ($262.26 - $118.88) / $118.88 = 120.6% $15.27 FFO × 25x
Bull Case $303.41 155.2% upside ($303.41 - $118.88) / $118.88 = 155.2% $15.27 FFO × 29x

Adjust Assumptions

24.7x
15.27$

Key Value Driver

FFO/share ($15.27) × residential P/FFO multiple

Implied Market Multiple 7.8x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/FFO × Residential REIT Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $141.63 from 21 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $262.26 per share.

Warnings

Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
Dividend-based valuation: $128.20 (58% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Wall Street's average price target is $141.63 (from 21 analysts). Our estimate is 114% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
  • Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
  • FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify