MicroStrategy Incorporated 10.00% Series A Perpetual Strife Preferred Stock logo STRF - MicroStrategy Incorporated 10.00% Series A Perpetual Strife Preferred Stock

Price: -- --
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 40% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 459.5% above fair value
Current Price $101.49
Bear Case $15.19 85.0% downside ($15.19 - $101.49) / $101.49 = -85.0% $0.56 × 27x P/E
Fair Value $18.14 82.1% downside ($18.14 - $101.49) / $101.49 = -82.1% $0.56 × 32x P/E
Bull Case $21.09 79.2% downside ($21.09 - $101.49) / $101.49 = -79.2% $0.56 × 38x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

32.2x
0.56$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (32x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 180.4x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 32x P/E to adjusted EPS of $0.56, the base-case value is $18.14 per share.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples