STMicroelectronics N.V. logo STMEF - STMicroelectronics N.V.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 12
HOLD 10
SELL 2
STRONG
SELL 0
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Cyclical & Capital-Intensive 80% confidence

Primary model: Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 88.2% above fair value
Current Price $64.93
Bear Case $26.66 58.9% downside ($26.66 - $64.93) / $64.93 = -58.9% $1.96 × 12x + net cash
Fair Value $34.50 46.9% downside ($34.50 - $64.93) / $64.93 = -46.9% $1.96 × 16x + net cash
Bull Case $42.34 34.8% downside ($42.34 - $64.93) / $64.93 = -34.8% $1.96 × 20x + net cash

Adjust Assumptions

16.0x
1.96$

Key Value Driver

Through-cycle normalized EPS ($1.96)

Implied Market Multiple 33.1x

Plain-Language Summary

Using 7-year normalized EPS of $1.96 at a 16x cycle multiple, the base-case value is $34.50 per share. P/TBV cross-check: 3.4x.

Warnings

⚠ Price-to-book value of 3.4x is above the normal range for this type of business (0.7x-2.0x). The stock may already price in a strong cycle.
ℹ This company has heavy ongoing investment costs. Valuation shortcuts that ignore those costs can make the stock look cheaper than it really is.

Key Risks

  • Standard 10-year DCF produces unreliable terminal values for cyclicals
  • 'Cheap' P/E at cycle peak is the most common value trap — normalize first
  • Captive finance subsidiaries have different risk profiles from manufacturing