StepStone Group Inc. logo STEP - StepStone Group Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 7
HOLD 1
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $65.17 DETAILS
HIGH: $85.00
LOW: $56.00
MEDIAN: $61.50
CONSENSUS: $65.17
UPSIDE: 30.94%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 211.8% above fair value
Current Price $49.77
Bear Case $11.17 77.6% downside ($11.17 - $49.77) / $49.77 = -77.6% ROTCE 4.0% → 0.30x TBV
Fair Value $15.96 67.9% downside ($15.96 - $49.77) / $49.77 = -67.9% ROTCE 0.0% → 0.30x TBV
Bull Case $20.75 58.3% downside ($20.75 - $49.77) / $49.77 = -58.3% ROTCE 0.0% → 0.30x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

0.0%
11.2%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (0.0%) vs. cost of equity (11.2%)

Implied Market Multiple 6.24x

Plain-Language Summary

With ROTCE of 0.0% vs. 11.2% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 0.30x on $7.98 tangible book, implying $15.96 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (8 analysts) $65.17
Analyst Range $56.00 – $85.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 76%

Warnings

Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Return on equity (0.0%) is below the minimum investors require (11.2%). This means the bank is worth less than the net assets on its books.
Wall Street's average price target is $65.17 (from 8 analysts). Our estimate is 76% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly