STERIS plc logo STE - STERIS plc

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 11
HOLD 2
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $269.50 DETAILS
HIGH: $270.00
LOW: $269.00
MEDIAN: $269.50
CONSENSUS: $269.50
UPSIDE: 24.73%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 65% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Overvalued Moderate
Trading 15.3% above fair value
Current Price $216.06
Bear Case $141.39 34.6% downside ($141.39 - $216.06) / $216.06 = -34.6% 5% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $187.41 13.3% downside ($187.41 - $216.06) / $216.06 = -13.3% 9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $230.89 6.9% upside ($230.89 - $216.06) / $216.06 = 6.9% 11% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

8.5%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (9% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 38%
Implied Market Multiple 24.5x
Market is pricing in (growth) 11.7% vs our 8.5% base

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $269.50 from 13 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $187.41 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $269.50 (from 13 analysts). Our estimate is 38% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions