AlphaMadera's AlphaVal page computes S&T Bancorp, Inc.'s fair value using a multi-method blend (DCF, comparable-multiples, and Graham-style intrinsic value), then compares it to the current market price to flag STBA as undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued.

What is S&T Bancorp, Inc.'s fair value?

Fair value for STBA is a model output combining discounted cash flow projections, peer-group multiples, and a Graham number floor. The live AlphaVal page shows the blended fair value alongside each method's individual estimate.

How does AlphaMadera value STBA?

AlphaVal uses three primary techniques: a five-year discounted-cash-flow projection with terminal multiple, peer-group multiple analysis (P/E, EV/EBITDA, P/S), and Graham's defensive-investor intrinsic-value formula. Inputs come from STBA's most recent reported fundamentals.

STBA - S&T Bancorp, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS | PRICE TARGET: $37.67 DETAILS

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild

Trading 8.5% below fair value

Current Price $44.86

Bear Case $34.34 23.5% downside ($34.34 - $44.86) / $44.86 = -23.5% ROTCE 9.3% → 1.06x TBV

Fair Value $49.05 9.3% upside ($49.05 - $44.86) / $44.86 = 9.3% ROTCE 12.3% → 1.68x TBV

Bull Case $63.77 42.2% upside ($63.77 - $44.86) / $44.86 = 42.2% ROTCE 14.2% → 2.05x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

Return on Tangible Equity

12.3%

Cost of Equity

9.0%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (12.3%) vs. cost of equity (9.0%)

Implied Market Multiple 1.48x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $37.67 from 12 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $49.05 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.

⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.

ℹ Dividend-based valuation: $31.83 (39% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.

ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $37.67 (from 12 analysts). Our estimate is 38% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly