AlphaMadera's AlphaVal page computes STAG Industrial, Inc.'s fair value using a multi-method blend (DCF, comparable-multiples, and Graham-style intrinsic value), then compares it to the current market price to flag STAG as undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued.

What is STAG Industrial, Inc.'s fair value?

Fair value for STAG is a model output combining discounted cash flow projections, peer-group multiples, and a Graham number floor. The live AlphaVal page shows the blended fair value alongside each method's individual estimate.

How does AlphaMadera value STAG?

AlphaVal uses three primary techniques: a five-year discounted-cash-flow projection with terminal multiple, peer-group multiple analysis (P/E, EV/EBITDA, P/S), and Graham's defensive-investor intrinsic-value formula. Inputs come from STAG's most recent reported fundamentals.

STAG - STAG Industrial, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS | PRICE TARGET: $41.00 DETAILS

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Real Estate Investment Trust 85% confidence

Primary model: P/FFO × Industrial REIT Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong

Trading 47.9% below fair value

Current Price $38.98

Bear Case $61.19 57.0% upside ($61.19 - $38.98) / $38.98 = 57.0% $3.01 FFO × 23x

Fair Value $74.79 91.9% upside ($74.79 - $38.98) / $38.98 = 91.9% $3.01 FFO × 29x

Bull Case $88.38 126.7% upside ($88.38 - $38.98) / $38.98 = 126.7% $3.01 FFO × 34x

Adjust Assumptions

P/FFO Multiple

28.6x

FFO per Share

3.01$

Key Value Driver

FFO/share ($3.01) × industrial P/FFO multiple

Implied Market Multiple 13.0x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/FFO × Industrial REIT Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $41.00 from 21 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $74.79 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.

ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $41.00 (from 21 analysts). Our estimate is 110% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify