STAAR Surgical Company logo STAA - STAAR Surgical Company

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 5
HOLD 9
SELL 2
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $30.89 DETAILS
HIGH: $40.00
LOW: $23.00
MEDIAN: $31.00
CONSENSUS: $30.89
UPSIDE: 43.31%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 40% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 234.2% above fair value
Current Price $21.55
Bear Case $5.16 76.1% downside ($5.16 - $21.55) / $21.55 = -76.1% $0.43 × 12x P/E
Fair Value $6.45 70.1% downside ($6.45 - $21.55) / $21.55 = -70.1% $0.43 × 15x P/E
Bull Case $7.74 64.1% downside ($7.74 - $21.55) / $21.55 = -64.1% $0.43 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

15.0x
0.43$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 50.1x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $0.43, the base-case value is $6.45 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (16 analysts) $30.89
Analyst Range $23.00 – $40.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 79%

Warnings

ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $30.89 (from 16 analysts). Our estimate is 79% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples