STAAR Surgical Company logo STAA - STAAR Surgical Company

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 4
HOLD 10
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $29.54 DETAILS
HIGH: $40.00
LOW: $13.00
MEDIAN: $31.00
CONSENSUS: $29.54
DOWNSIDE: 9.02%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 40% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 165.7% above fair value
Current Price $32.47
Bear Case $9.78 69.9% downside ($9.78 - $32.47) / $32.47 = -69.9% $0.43 × 12x P/E
Fair Value $12.22 62.4% downside ($12.22 - $32.47) / $32.47 = -62.4% $0.43 × 15x P/E
Bull Case $14.67 54.8% downside ($14.67 - $32.47) / $32.47 = -54.8% $0.43 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

15.0x
0.43$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 75.5x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $29.54 from 15 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $12.22 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $29.54 (from 15 analysts). Our estimate is 78% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples