STAAR Surgical Company logo STAA - STAAR Surgical Company

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 4
HOLD 10
SELL 2
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $31.50 DETAILS
HIGH: $40.00
LOW: $27.00
MEDIAN: $31.50
CONSENSUS: $31.50
UPSIDE: 42.47%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 40% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 242.8% above fair value
Current Price $22.11
Bear Case $5.16 76.7% downside ($5.16 - $22.11) / $22.11 = -76.7% $0.43 × 12x P/E
Fair Value $6.45 70.8% downside ($6.45 - $22.11) / $22.11 = -70.8% $0.43 × 15x P/E
Bull Case $7.74 65.0% downside ($7.74 - $22.11) / $22.11 = -65.0% $0.43 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

15.0x
0.43$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 51.4x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $0.43, the base-case value is $6.45 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (16 analysts) $31.50
Analyst Range $27.00 – $40.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 80%

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $31.50 (from 16 analysts). Our estimate is 80% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples