STAAR Surgical Company logo STAA - STAAR Surgical Company

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 4
HOLD 10
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $32.60 DETAILS
HIGH: $40.00
LOW: $27.00
MEDIAN: $32.00
CONSENSUS: $32.60
UPSIDE: 10.01%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 40% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 128.2% above fair value
Current Price $29.63
Bear Case $10.39 64.9% downside ($10.39 - $29.63) / $29.63 = -64.9% $0.43 × 12x P/E
Fair Value $12.99 56.2% downside ($12.99 - $29.63) / $29.63 = -56.2% $0.43 × 15x P/E
Bull Case $15.59 47.4% downside ($15.59 - $29.63) / $29.63 = -47.4% $0.43 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

15.0x
0.43$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 68.9x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $32.60 from 15 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $12.99 per share.

Warnings

ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $32.60 (from 15 analysts). Our estimate is 80% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples