Swiss Re AG logo SSREF - Swiss Re AG

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
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AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 45.3% below fair value
Current Price $153.18
Bear Case $279.89 82.7% upside ($279.89 - $153.18) / $153.18 = 82.7% ROTCE 18.0% → 4.00x TBV
Fair Value $279.89 82.7% upside ($279.89 - $153.18) / $153.18 = 82.7% ROTCE 24.1% → 4.00x TBV
Bull Case $279.89 82.7% upside ($279.89 - $153.18) / $153.18 = 82.7% ROTCE 27.7% → 4.00x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

24.1%
6.3%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (24.1%) vs. cost of equity (6.3%)

Implied Market Multiple 2.19x

Plain-Language Summary

With ROTCE of 24.1% vs. 6.3% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 4.00x on $69.97 tangible book, implying $279.89 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly