Sarepta Therapeutics, Inc. logo SRPT - Sarepta Therapeutics, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 30
HOLD 18
SELL 6
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $25.14 DETAILS
HIGH: $35.00
LOW: $14.00
MEDIAN: $25.00
CONSENSUS: $25.14
UPSIDE: 49.64%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Distressed or Transitioning 75% confidence

Primary model: Current EPS × Depressed Multiple

Valuation Signal Fair Value Moderate
Trading 16.9% below fair value
Current Price $16.80
Bear Case $13.47 19.8% downside ($13.47 - $16.80) / $16.80 = -19.8% EPS continues to decline, 5x multiple
Fair Value $20.21 20.3% upside ($20.21 - $16.80) / $16.80 = 20.3% Current EPS stabilizes, 8x multiple
Bull Case $26.94 60.4% upside ($26.94 - $16.80) / $16.80 = 60.4% Credible recovery, multiple re-rates to 10x

Adjust Assumptions

7.5x

Key Value Driver

Whether the core business model is intact or structurally impaired

Implied Market Multiple 7.2x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses Current EPS × Depressed Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $25.14 from 54 analysts, using a 35% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $20.21 per share.

Warnings

Don't assume past cash flow levels will return — the company's troubles may have permanently reduced its ability to generate profits.
A stock can look cheap on paper and still lose half its value if the underlying business is permanently damaged.
The wide range between our best and worst cases is intentional — pretending to know a precise value for a troubled company would be misleading.
Wall Street's average price target is $25.14 (from 54 analysts). Our estimate is 30% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Bullish DCF projections are fundamentally unknowable for distressed companies
  • M&A speculation can floor the stock above intrinsic value temporarily
  • Management credibility is a key input — new CEO expands the bull case