Sarepta Therapeutics, Inc. logo SRPT - Sarepta Therapeutics, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 30
HOLD 18
SELL 6
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $24.78 DETAILS
HIGH: $35.00
LOW: $14.00
MEDIAN: $25.00
CONSENSUS: $24.78
UPSIDE: 30.77%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 40% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 53.3% below fair value
Current Price $18.95
Bear Case $34.81 83.7% upside ($34.81 - $18.95) / $18.95 = 83.7% $2.34 × 18x P/E
Fair Value $40.61 114.3% upside ($40.61 - $18.95) / $18.95 = 114.3% $2.34 × 21x P/E
Bull Case $46.42 144.9% upside ($46.42 - $18.95) / $18.95 = 144.9% $2.34 × 24x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

21.0x
2.34$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (21x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 8.1x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $24.78 from 54 analysts, using a 35% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $40.61 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $24.78 (from 54 analysts). Our estimate is 98% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples