1st Source Corporation logo SRCE - 1st Source Corporation

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 1
HOLD 3
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $93.50 DETAILS
HIGH: $100.00
LOW: $87.00
MEDIAN: $93.50
CONSENSUS: $93.50
UPSIDE: 3.18%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Undervalued Moderate
Trading 32.7% below fair value
Current Price $90.62
Bear Case $86.51 4.5% downside ($86.51 - $90.62) / $90.62 = -4.5% ROTCE 10.0% → 1.75x TBV
Fair Value $134.67 48.6% upside ($134.67 - $90.62) / $90.62 = 48.6% ROTCE 13.3% → 2.72x TBV
Bull Case $163.57 80.5% upside ($163.57 - $90.62) / $90.62 = 80.5% ROTCE 15.3% → 3.31x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

13.3%
7.4%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (13.3%) vs. cost of equity (7.4%)

Implied Market Multiple 1.83x

Plain-Language Summary

With ROTCE of 13.3% vs. 7.4% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 2.72x on $49.49 tangible book, implying $134.67 per share. DDM cross-check: $134.85.

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly