Spire Inc. logo SR - Spire Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 8
HOLD 7
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $96.20 DETAILS
HIGH: $103.00
LOW: $87.00
MEDIAN: $96.00
CONSENSUS: $96.20
UPSIDE: 10.59%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Mild
Trading 13.7% above fair value
Current Price $86.99
Bear Case $66.93 23.1% downside ($66.93 - $86.99) / $86.99 = -23.1% $4.37 × 14x P/E
Fair Value $76.49 12.1% downside ($76.49 - $86.99) / $86.99 = -12.1% $4.37 × 16x P/E
Bull Case $86.05 1.1% downside ($86.05 - $86.99) / $86.99 = -1.1% $4.37 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

16.0x
4.37$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 19.9x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $96.20 from 15 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $76.49 per share.

Warnings

ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $96.20 (from 15 analysts). Our estimate is 27% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples