Spire Inc. logo SR - Spire Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 7
HOLD 8
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $92.57 DETAILS
HIGH: $103.00
LOW: $79.00
MEDIAN: $95.00
CONSENSUS: $92.57
UPSIDE: 7.97%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Moderate
Trading 22.6% above fair value
Current Price $85.74
Bear Case $61.18 28.6% downside ($61.18 - $85.74) / $85.74 = -28.6% $4.37 × 14x P/E
Fair Value $69.92 18.5% downside ($69.92 - $85.74) / $85.74 = -18.5% $4.37 × 16x P/E
Bull Case $78.66 8.3% downside ($78.66 - $85.74) / $85.74 = -8.3% $4.37 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

16.0x
4.37$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 19.6x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 16x P/E to adjusted EPS of $4.37, the base-case value is $69.92 per share. DDM cross-check: $81.34.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (15 analysts) $92.57
Analyst Range $79.00 – $103.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 24%

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples