Sociedad Química y Minera de Chile S.A. logo SQM - Sociedad Química y Minera de Chile S.A.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 5
HOLD 8
SELL 3
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $78.20 DETAILS
HIGH: $106.00
LOW: $53.00
MEDIAN: $79.00
CONSENSUS: $78.20
DOWNSIDE: 2.47%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 50% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Overvalued Mild
Trading 5.4% above fair value
Current Price $80.18
Bear Case $37.97 52.6% downside ($37.97 - $80.18) / $80.18 = -52.6% 12% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $76.06 5.1% downside ($76.06 - $80.18) / $80.18 = -5.1% 20% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $124.17 54.9% upside ($124.17 - $80.18) / $80.18 = 54.9% 26% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

20.2%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (20% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 46%
Implied Market Multiple 49.3x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $78.20 from 16 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $76.06 per share.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions