Sociedad Química y Minera de Chile S.A. logo SQM - Sociedad Química y Minera de Chile S.A.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 5
HOLD 8
SELL 3
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $84.50 DETAILS
HIGH: $105.00
LOW: $53.00
MEDIAN: $90.00
CONSENSUS: $84.50
UPSIDE: 26.36%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 50% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild
Trading 6.9% below fair value
Current Price $66.87
Bear Case $37.26 44.3% downside ($37.26 - $66.87) / $66.87 = -44.3% 11% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $71.85 7.4% upside ($71.85 - $66.87) / $66.87 = 7.4% 19% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $114.23 70.8% upside ($114.23 - $66.87) / $66.87 = 70.8% 25% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

18.9%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (19% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 46%
Implied Market Multiple 41.8x
Market is pricing in (growth) 18.8% vs our 18.9% base

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $84.50 from 16 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $71.85 per share.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions