Sociedad Química y Minera de Chile S.A. logo SQM - Sociedad Química y Minera de Chile S.A.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 5
HOLD 8
SELL 3
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $92.50 DETAILS
HIGH: $104.00
LOW: $82.00
MEDIAN: $92.00
CONSENSUS: $92.50
UPSIDE: 62.37%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 50% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Undervalued Moderate
Trading 33.9% below fair value
Current Price $56.97
Bear Case $45.52 20.1% downside ($45.52 - $56.97) / $56.97 = -20.1% 11% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $86.15 51.2% upside ($86.15 - $56.97) / $56.97 = 51.2% 19% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $135.94 138.6% upside ($135.94 - $56.97) / $56.97 = 138.6% 25% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

19.0%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (19% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 46%
Implied Market Multiple 29.1x
Market is pricing in (growth) 14.0% vs our 18.9% base

Plain-Language Summary

Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 19% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $86.15 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (16 analysts) $92.50
Analyst Range $82.00 – $104.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 7%

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions