SPX Technologies, Inc. logo SPXC - SPX Technologies, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 9
HOLD 3
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $268.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $295.00
LOW: $243.00
MEDIAN: $266.00
CONSENSUS: $268.00
UPSIDE: 21.89%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 50% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 72.2% above fair value
Current Price $219.87
Bear Case $94.23 57.1% downside ($94.23 - $219.87) / $219.87 = -57.1% 6% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $127.69 41.9% downside ($127.69 - $219.87) / $219.87 = -41.9% 10% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $160.45 27.0% downside ($160.45 - $219.87) / $219.87 = -27.0% 13% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

9.9%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (10% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 39%
Implied Market Multiple 50.0x
Market is pricing in (growth) 21.2% vs our 9.9% base

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $268.00 from 12 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $127.69 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $268.00 (from 12 analysts). Our estimate is 65% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions