SPRY - ARS Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
Price:
--
--
|
CONSENSUS:
Hold
DETAILS
|
PRICE TARGET:
$25.50
DETAILS
HIGH:
$26.00
LOW:
$25.00
MEDIAN:
$25.50
CONSENSUS:
$25.50
UPSIDE:
211.27%
AlphaVal
Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value
Distressed or Transitioning
75% confidence
Primary model: Current EPS × Depressed Multiple
Adjust Assumptions
7.5x
Key Value Driver
Whether the core business model is intact or structurally impaired
Implied Market Multiple
104.9x
Plain-Language Summary
Our base-case estimate uses Current EPS × Depressed Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $25.50 from 10 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $5.57 per share.
Warnings
Don't assume past cash flow levels will return — the company's troubles may have permanently reduced its ability to generate profits.
A stock can look cheap on paper and still lose half its value if the underlying business is permanently damaged.
The wide range between our best and worst cases is intentional — pretending to know a precise value for a troubled company would be misleading.
Wall Street's average price target is $25.50 (from 10 analysts). Our estimate is 98% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Bullish DCF projections are fundamentally unknowable for distressed companies
- M&A speculation can floor the stock above intrinsic value temporarily
- Management credibility is a key input — new CEO expands the bull case