Spok Holdings, Inc. logo SPOK - Spok Holdings, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 0
HOLD 1
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $15.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $15.00
LOW: $15.00
MEDIAN: $15.00
CONSENSUS: $15.00
UPSIDE: 36.86%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Moderate
Trading 16.9% above fair value
Current Price $10.96
Bear Case $7.50 31.6% downside ($7.50 - $10.96) / $10.96 = -31.6% $0.75 × 10x P/E
Fair Value $9.38 14.5% downside ($9.38 - $10.96) / $10.96 = -14.5% $0.75 × 12x P/E
Bull Case $11.25 2.6% upside ($11.25 - $10.96) / $10.96 = 2.6% $0.75 × 15x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

12.5x
0.75$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (12x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 14.6x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 12x P/E to adjusted EPS of $0.75, the base-case value is $9.38 per share. DDM cross-check: $212.89.

Warnings

The company pays out 167% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.
Dividend-based valuation: $212.89 (above our primary estimate by 2171%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples