SiriusPoint Ltd. logo SPNT - SiriusPoint Ltd.

Price: -- -- | PRICE TARGET: $25.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $25.00
LOW: $25.00
MEDIAN: $25.00
CONSENSUS: $25.00
UPSIDE: 7.20%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 65.1% below fair value
Current Price $23.32
Bear Case $57.85 148.1% upside ($57.85 - $23.32) / $23.32 = 148.1% ROTCE 17.5% → 3.46x TBV
Fair Value $66.85 186.7% upside ($66.85 - $23.32) / $23.32 = 186.7% ROTCE 23.4% → 4.00x TBV
Bull Case $66.85 186.7% upside ($66.85 - $23.32) / $23.32 = 186.7% ROTCE 26.9% → 4.00x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

23.4%
7.9%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (23.4%) vs. cost of equity (7.9%)

Implied Market Multiple 1.4x

Plain-Language Summary

With ROTCE of 23.4% vs. 7.9% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 4.00x on $16.71 tangible book, implying $66.85 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly