AlphaMadera's AlphaVal page computes Simon Property Group, Inc.'s fair value using a multi-method blend (DCF, comparable-multiples, and Graham-style intrinsic value), then compares it to the current market price to flag SPG as undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued.

What is Simon Property Group, Inc.'s fair value?

Fair value for SPG is a model output combining discounted cash flow projections, peer-group multiples, and a Graham number floor. The live AlphaVal page shows the blended fair value alongside each method's individual estimate.

How does AlphaMadera value SPG?

AlphaVal uses three primary techniques: a five-year discounted-cash-flow projection with terminal multiple, peer-group multiple analysis (P/E, EV/EBITDA, P/S), and Graham's defensive-investor intrinsic-value formula. Inputs come from SPG's most recent reported fundamentals.

SPG - Simon Property Group, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS | PRICE TARGET: $203.10 DETAILS

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Real Estate Investment Trust 85% confidence

Primary model: P/FFO × Retail REIT Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong

Trading 42.0% below fair value

Current Price $204.41

Bear Case $288.57 41.2% upside ($288.57 - $204.41) / $204.41 = 41.2% $18.77 FFO × 16x

Fair Value $352.25 72.3% upside ($352.25 - $204.41) / $204.41 = 72.3% $18.77 FFO × 20x

Bull Case $415.92 103.5% upside ($415.92 - $204.41) / $204.41 = 103.5% $18.77 FFO × 23x

Adjust Assumptions

P/FFO Multiple

19.5x

FFO per Share

18.77$

Key Value Driver

FFO/share ($18.77) × retail P/FFO multiple

Implied Market Multiple 10.9x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/FFO × Retail REIT Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $203.10 from 37 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $352.25 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.

ℹ Dividend-based valuation: $533.14 (28% above our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.

ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $203.10 (from 37 analysts). Our estimate is 105% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify