AlphaMadera's AlphaVal page classifies Simon Property Group, Inc. as a Real Estate Investment Trust business and values it using P/FFO × Retail REIT Multiple, then compares the result to the current market price to flag SPG as undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued.

What is Simon Property Group, Inc.'s fair value?

Fair value for SPG comes from a P/FFO × Retail REIT Multiple model -- the approach AlphaVal selected for this company's Real Estate Investment Trust classification. The live AlphaVal page shows bear, base, and bull scenarios alongside the key assumption behind each.

How does AlphaMadera value SPG?

AlphaVal routes each company to one of ten valuation archetypes based on its business model. SPG was classified as Real Estate Investment Trust and is valued using P/FFO × Retail REIT Multiple, built from SPG's most recent reported fundamentals.

SPG - Simon Property Group, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS | PRICE TARGET: $223.60 DETAILS

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Real Estate Investment Trust 85% confidence

Primary model: P/FFO × Retail REIT Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong

Trading 42.9% below fair value

Current Price $209.44

Bear Case $293.33 40.1% upside ($293.33 - $209.44) / $209.44 = 40.1% $18.80 FFO × 16x

Fair Value $366.66 75.1% upside ($366.66 - $209.44) / $209.44 = 75.1% $18.80 FFO × 20x

Bull Case $440.00 110.1% upside ($440.00 - $209.44) / $209.44 = 110.1% $18.80 FFO × 23x

Adjust Assumptions

P/FFO Multiple

19.5x

FFO per Share

18.8$

Key Value Driver

FFO/share ($18.80) × retail P/FFO multiple

Terminal Value % of EV

Implied Market Multiple 11.1x

Market is pricing in (growth)

Plain-Language Summary

At $18.80 FFO/share with a 20x retail REIT multiple, the base-case value is $366.66 per share. Dividend yield: 4.2%. DDM cross-check: $406.48.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (38 analysts) $223.60

Analyst Range $207.00 – $285.00

Divergence from AlphaVal 64%

Warnings

⚠ Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.

ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $223.60 (from 38 analysts). Our estimate is 64% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify