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AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Fair Value Moderate
Trading 20.2% below fair value
Current Price $50.32
Bear Case $55.20 9.7% upside ($55.20 - $50.32) / $50.32 = 9.7% $3.94 × 14x P/E
Fair Value $63.08 25.4% upside ($63.08 - $50.32) / $50.32 = 25.4% $3.94 × 16x P/E
Bull Case $70.97 41.0% upside ($70.97 - $50.32) / $50.32 = 41.0% $3.94 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

16.0x
3.94$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 12.8x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 16x P/E to adjusted EPS of $3.94, the base-case value is $63.08 per share.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples