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AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Fair Value Moderate
Trading 21.9% below fair value
Current Price $48.96
Bear Case $54.88 12.1% upside ($54.88 - $48.96) / $48.96 = 12.1% $3.92 × 14x P/E
Fair Value $62.72 28.1% upside ($62.72 - $48.96) / $48.96 = 28.1% $3.92 × 16x P/E
Bull Case $70.56 44.1% upside ($70.56 - $48.96) / $48.96 = 44.1% $3.92 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

16.0x
3.92$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 12.5x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 16x P/E to adjusted EPS of $3.92, the base-case value is $62.72 per share.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples