The Southern Company logo SO - The Southern Company

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 10
HOLD 21
SELL 2
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $99.77 DETAILS
HIGH: $112.00
LOW: $76.00
MEDIAN: $103.00
CONSENSUS: $99.77
UPSIDE: 5.52%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Moderate
Trading 27.6% above fair value
Current Price $94.55
Bear Case $64.82 31.4% downside ($64.82 - $94.55) / $94.55 = -31.4% $3.94 × 14x P/E
Fair Value $74.09 21.6% downside ($74.09 - $94.55) / $94.55 = -21.6% $3.94 × 16x P/E
Bull Case $83.34 11.9% downside ($83.34 - $94.55) / $94.55 = -11.9% $3.94 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

16.0x
3.94$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 24.0x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $99.77 from 33 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $74.09 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $99.77 (from 33 analysts). Our estimate is 37% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples