The Southern Company logo SO - The Southern Company

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 10
HOLD 22
SELL 2
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $102.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $112.00
LOW: $89.00
MEDIAN: $103.00
CONSENSUS: $102.00
UPSIDE: 6.68%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Moderate
Trading 27.9% above fair value
Current Price $95.61
Bear Case $65.41 31.6% downside ($65.41 - $95.61) / $95.61 = -31.6% $3.94 × 14x P/E
Fair Value $74.76 21.8% downside ($74.76 - $95.61) / $95.61 = -21.8% $3.94 × 16x P/E
Bull Case $84.09 12.0% downside ($84.09 - $95.61) / $95.61 = -12.0% $3.94 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

16.0x
3.94$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 24.3x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $102.00 from 34 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $74.76 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $102.00 (from 34 analysts). Our estimate is 38% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples