Sanofi logo SNY - Sanofi

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 12
HOLD 14
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $49.50 DETAILS
HIGH: $50.00
LOW: $49.00
MEDIAN: $49.50
CONSENSUS: $49.50
UPSIDE: 16.53%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Fair Value Moderate
Trading 17.4% below fair value
Current Price $42.48
Bear Case $44.11 3.8% upside ($44.11 - $42.48) / $42.48 = 3.8% $3.68 × 12x P/E
Fair Value $51.46 21.1% upside ($51.46 - $42.48) / $42.48 = 21.1% $3.68 × 14x P/E
Bull Case $58.81 38.4% upside ($58.81 - $42.48) / $42.48 = 38.4% $3.68 × 16x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

14.0x
3.68$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (14x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 11.6x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 14x P/E to adjusted EPS of $3.68, the base-case value is $51.46 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (27 analysts) $49.50
Analyst Range $49.00 – $50.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 4%

Warnings

The company pays out 233% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.
Financial statements were converted from EUR into USD using EURUSD at 1.1486 USD per EUR.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples