Sanofi logo SNY - Sanofi

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 12
HOLD 14
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $49.50 DETAILS
HIGH: $50.00
LOW: $49.00
MEDIAN: $49.50
CONSENSUS: $49.50
UPSIDE: 9.32%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Moderate
Trading 26.2% below fair value
Current Price $45.28
Bear Case $52.58 16.1% upside ($52.58 - $45.28) / $45.28 = 16.1% $4.66 × 12x P/E
Fair Value $61.34 35.5% upside ($61.34 - $45.28) / $45.28 = 35.5% $4.66 × 14x P/E
Bull Case $70.10 54.8% upside ($70.10 - $45.28) / $45.28 = 54.8% $4.66 × 16x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

14.0x
4.66$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (14x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 9.7x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $49.50 from 27 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $61.34 per share.

Warnings

The company pays out 235% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.
Wall Street's average price target is $49.50 (from 27 analysts). Our estimate is 32% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Financial statements were converted from EUR into USD using EURUSD at 1.1387 USD per EUR.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples