Sandisk Corporation logo SNDK - Sandisk Corporation

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 12
HOLD 3
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $1,335.63 DETAILS
HIGH: $2,350.00
LOW: $450.00
MEDIAN: $1,325.00
CONSENSUS: $1,335.63
DOWNSIDE: 9.67%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 40% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 254.6% above fair value
Current Price $1478.68
Bear Case $333.64 77.4% downside ($333.64 - $1,478.68) / $1,478.68 = -77.4% $7.39 × 12x P/E
Fair Value $417.05 71.8% downside ($417.05 - $1,478.68) / $1,478.68 = -71.8% $7.39 × 15x P/E
Bull Case $500.45 66.2% downside ($500.45 - $1,478.68) / $1,478.68 = -66.2% $7.39 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

15.0x
7.39$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 200.1x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $1335.63 from 15 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $417.05 per share.

Warnings

ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $1335.63 (from 15 analysts). Our estimate is 92% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples