Sandisk Corporation logo SNDK - Sandisk Corporation

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 13
HOLD 2
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $1,992.67 DETAILS
HIGH: $3,100.00
LOW: $650.00
MEDIAN: $1,750.00
CONSENSUS: $1,992.67
UPSIDE: 38.71%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 40% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 147.1% above fair value
Current Price $1436.56
Bear Case $465.04 67.6% downside ($465.04 - $1,436.56) / $1,436.56 = -67.6% $7.39 × 12x P/E
Fair Value $581.31 59.5% downside ($581.31 - $1,436.56) / $1,436.56 = -59.5% $7.39 × 15x P/E
Bull Case $697.57 51.4% downside ($697.57 - $1,436.56) / $1,436.56 = -51.4% $7.39 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

15.0x
7.39$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 194.4x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $1992.67 from 15 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $581.31 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $1992.67 (from 15 analysts). Our estimate is 94% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples