Sandisk Corporation logo SNDK - Sandisk Corporation

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 13
HOLD 2
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $1,879.67 DETAILS
HIGH: $3,100.00
LOW: $650.00
MEDIAN: $1,750.00
CONSENSUS: $1,879.67
UPSIDE: 38.74%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Distressed or Transitioning 75% confidence

Primary model: Current EPS × Depressed Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 164.9% above fair value
Current Price $1354.82
Bear Case $341.02 74.8% downside ($341.02 - $1,354.82) / $1,354.82 = -74.8% EPS continues to decline, 5x multiple
Fair Value $511.48 62.2% downside ($511.48 - $1,354.82) / $1,354.82 = -62.2% Current EPS stabilizes, 8x multiple
Bull Case $682.04 49.7% downside ($682.04 - $1,354.82) / $1,354.82 = -49.7% Credible recovery, multiple re-rates to 10x

Adjust Assumptions

7.5x

Key Value Driver

Whether the core business model is intact or structurally impaired

Implied Market Multiple 183.3x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses Current EPS × Depressed Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $1879.67 from 15 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $511.48 per share.

Warnings

Don't assume past cash flow levels will return — the company's troubles may have permanently reduced its ability to generate profits.
A stock can look cheap on paper and still lose half its value if the underlying business is permanently damaged.
The wide range between our best and worst cases is intentional — pretending to know a precise value for a troubled company would be misleading.
Wall Street's average price target is $1879.67 (from 15 analysts). Our estimate is 97% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Bullish DCF projections are fundamentally unknowable for distressed companies
  • M&A speculation can floor the stock above intrinsic value temporarily
  • Management credibility is a key input — new CEO expands the bull case