Snap-on Incorporated logo SNA - Snap-on Incorporated

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 11
HOLD 4
SELL 2
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $413.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $431.00
LOW: $395.00
MEDIAN: $413.00
CONSENSUS: $413.00
UPSIDE: 12.64%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 65% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Mild
Trading 13.3% above fair value
Current Price $366.65
Bear Case $258.98 29.4% downside ($258.98 - $366.65) / $366.65 = -29.4% $19.60 × 12x P/E
Fair Value $323.73 11.7% downside ($323.73 - $366.65) / $366.65 = -11.7% $19.60 × 15x P/E
Bull Case $388.47 6.0% upside ($388.47 - $366.65) / $366.65 = 6.0% $19.60 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

15.0x
19.6$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 18.7x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $413.00 from 17 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $323.73 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $413.00 (from 17 analysts). Our estimate is 29% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples