Snap-on Incorporated logo SNA - Snap-on Incorporated

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 12
HOLD 4
SELL 2
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $449.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $485.00
LOW: $415.00
MEDIAN: $448.00
CONSENSUS: $449.00
UPSIDE: 24.17%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 65% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Moderate
Trading 25.6% above fair value
Current Price $361.60
Bear Case $230.28 36.3% downside ($230.28 - $361.60) / $361.60 = -36.3% $19.19 × 12x P/E
Fair Value $287.85 20.4% downside ($287.85 - $361.60) / $361.60 = -20.4% $19.19 × 15x P/E
Bull Case $345.42 4.5% downside ($345.42 - $361.60) / $361.60 = -4.5% $19.19 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

15.0x
19.19$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 18.8x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $19.19, the base-case value is $287.85 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (18 analysts) $449.00
Analyst Range $415.00 – $485.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 36%

Warnings

ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $449.00 (from 18 analysts). Our estimate is 36% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples