Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group, Inc. logo SMFG - Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 1
HOLD 3
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL 0
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 90% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 64.1% below fair value
Current Price $25.59
Bear Case $43.86 71.4% upside ($43.86 - $25.59) / $25.59 = 71.4% ROTCE 8.6% → 1.89x TBV
Fair Value $71.29 178.6% upside ($71.29 - $25.59) / $25.59 = 178.6% ROTCE 11.4% → 3.08x TBV
Bull Case $87.75 242.9% upside ($87.75 - $25.59) / $25.59 = 242.9% ROTCE 13.1% → 3.79x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

11.4%
6.4%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (11.4%) vs. cost of equity (6.4%)

Implied Market Multiple 1.1x

Plain-Language Summary

With ROTCE of 11.4% vs. 6.4% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 3.08x on $23.18 tangible book, implying $71.29 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
ℹ Financial statements were converted from JPY into USD using USDJPY at 0.0061 USD per JPY.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly