Southern Missouri Bancorp, Inc. logo SMBC - Southern Missouri Bancorp, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 1
HOLD 2
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $77.50 DETAILS
HIGH: $79.00
LOW: $76.00
MEDIAN: $77.50
CONSENSUS: $77.50
UPSIDE: 2.99%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild
Trading 3.2% below fair value
Current Price $75.25
Bear Case $54.39 27.7% downside ($54.39 - $75.25) / $75.25 = -27.7% ROTCE 9.3% → 1.05x TBV
Fair Value $77.70 3.3% upside ($77.70 - $75.25) / $75.25 = 3.3% ROTCE 12.4% → 1.67x TBV
Bull Case $101.01 34.2% upside ($101.01 - $75.25) / $75.25 = 34.2% ROTCE 14.2% → 2.04x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

12.4%
9.0%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (12.4%) vs. cost of equity (9.0%)

Implied Market Multiple 1.76x

Plain-Language Summary

With ROTCE of 12.4% vs. 9.0% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 1.67x on $42.75 tangible book, implying $77.70 per share. DDM cross-check: $23.50.

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
ℹ Dividend-based valuation: $23.50 (70% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly