SMBC - Southern Missouri Bancorp, Inc.
Price:
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CONSENSUS:
Hold
DETAILS
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PRICE TARGET:
$73.50
DETAILS
HIGH:
$76.00
LOW:
$71.00
MEDIAN:
$73.50
CONSENSUS:
$73.50
UPSIDE:
6.54%
AlphaVal
Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
85% confidence
Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Adjust Assumptions
12.4%
9.2%
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (12.4%) vs. cost of equity (9.2%)
Implied Market Multiple
1.61x
Plain-Language Summary
With ROTCE of 12.4% vs. 9.2% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 1.62x on $42.75 tangible book, implying $77.70 per share. DDM cross-check: $22.71.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Dividend-based valuation: $22.71 (71% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly