Simulations Plus, Inc. logo SLP - Simulations Plus, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 4
HOLD 5
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $18.50 DETAILS
HIGH: $18.50
LOW: $18.50
MEDIAN: $18.50
CONSENSUS: $18.50
UPSIDE: 0.38%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 85% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Overvalued Mild
Trading 10.9% above fair value
Current Price $18.43
Bear Case $11.78 36.1% downside ($11.78 - $18.43) / $18.43 = -36.1% 8% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair Value $16.62 9.8% downside ($16.62 - $18.43) / $18.43 = -9.8% 13% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull Case $21.77 18.1% upside ($21.77 - $18.43) / $18.43 = 18.1% 17% stage 1 growth, 12% discount

Adjust Assumptions

13.4%
12.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (13% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 37%
Implied Market Multiple 27.0x
Market is pricing in (growth) 14.9% vs our 13.4% base

Plain-Language Summary

Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 13% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case intrinsic value is $16.62 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (9 analysts) $18.50
Analyst Range $18.50 – $18.50
Divergence from AlphaVal 10%

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions