Simulations Plus, Inc. logo SLP - Simulations Plus, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 4
HOLD 5
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $18.50 DETAILS
HIGH: $18.50
LOW: $18.50
MEDIAN: $18.50
CONSENSUS: $18.50
UPSIDE: 1.48%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 85% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Overvalued Mild
Trading 7.3% above fair value
Current Price $18.23
Bear Case $12.05 33.9% downside ($12.05 - $18.23) / $18.23 = -33.9% 8% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair Value $17.00 6.8% downside ($17.00 - $18.23) / $18.23 = -6.8% 13% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull Case $22.26 22.1% upside ($22.26 - $18.23) / $18.23 = 22.1% 17% stage 1 growth, 12% discount

Adjust Assumptions

13.4%
12.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (13% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 37%
Implied Market Multiple 26.6x
Market is pricing in (growth) 14.8% vs our 13.4% base

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $18.50 from 9 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $17.00 per share.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions