Silgan Holdings Inc. logo SLGN - Silgan Holdings Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 15
HOLD 4
SELL 2
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $50.33 DETAILS
HIGH: $59.00
LOW: $38.00
MEDIAN: $51.50
CONSENSUS: $50.33
UPSIDE: 33.15%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 65% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild
Trading 6.7% below fair value
Current Price $37.80
Bear Case $32.40 14.3% downside ($32.40 - $37.80) / $37.80 = -14.3% $2.70 × 12x P/E
Fair Value $40.50 7.1% upside ($40.50 - $37.80) / $37.80 = 7.1% $2.70 × 15x P/E
Bull Case $48.60 28.6% upside ($48.60 - $37.80) / $37.80 = 28.6% $2.70 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

15.0x
2.7$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 14.0x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $2.70, the base-case value is $40.50 per share. DDM cross-check: $44.16.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (21 analysts) $50.33
Analyst Range $38.00 – $59.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 20%

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples