Silgan Holdings Inc. logo SLGN - Silgan Holdings Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 15
HOLD 4
SELL 2
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $54.83 DETAILS
HIGH: $59.00
LOW: $47.00
MEDIAN: $56.50
CONSENSUS: $54.83
UPSIDE: 32.09%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 65% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Mild
Trading 2.5% above fair value
Current Price $41.51
Bear Case $32.40 21.9% downside ($32.40 - $41.51) / $41.51 = -21.9% $2.70 × 12x P/E
Fair Value $40.50 2.4% downside ($40.50 - $41.51) / $41.51 = -2.4% $2.70 × 15x P/E
Bull Case $48.60 17.1% upside ($48.60 - $41.51) / $41.51 = 17.1% $2.70 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

15.0x
2.7$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 15.4x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $2.70, the base-case value is $40.50 per share. DDM cross-check: $44.16.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (21 analysts) $54.83
Analyst Range $47.00 – $59.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 26%

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $54.83 (from 21 analysts). Our estimate is 26% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples