SL Green Realty Corp. logo SLG - SL Green Realty Corp.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 12
HOLD 18
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $48.91 DETAILS
HIGH: $70.00
LOW: $37.00
MEDIAN: $45.00
CONSENSUS: $48.91
DOWNSIDE: 8.44%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Distressed or Transitioning 70% confidence

Primary model: Current FCF × Depressed Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 264.1% above fair value
Current Price $53.42
Bear Case $0.00 100.0% downside ($0.00 - $53.42) / $53.42 = -100.0% FCF continues to decline, 4x multiple
Fair Value $14.67 72.5% downside ($14.67 - $53.42) / $53.42 = -72.5% Current FCF stabilizes, 6x multiple
Bull Case $0.00 100.0% downside ($0.00 - $53.42) / $53.42 = -100.0% Credible recovery, multiple re-rates to 8x

Adjust Assumptions

6.0x

Key Value Driver

Whether the core business model is intact or structurally impaired

Implied Market Multiple 137.9x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses Current FCF × Depressed Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $48.91 from 31 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $14.67 per share.

Warnings

Don't assume past cash flow levels will return — the company's troubles may have permanently reduced its ability to generate profits.
A stock can look cheap on paper and still lose half its value if the underlying business is permanently damaged.
The wide range between our best and worst cases is intentional — pretending to know a precise value for a troubled company would be misleading.
Debt per share ($107.34) is more than half the stock price. With this much debt on a struggling business, the paths to recovery for shareholders are narrow.
Wall Street's average price target is $48.91 (from 31 analysts). Our estimate is 100% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Bullish DCF projections are fundamentally unknowable for distressed companies
  • M&A speculation can floor the stock above intrinsic value temporarily
  • Management credibility is a key input — new CEO expands the bull case