SkyWater Technology, Inc. logo SKYT - SkyWater Technology, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 2
HOLD 4
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $35.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $35.00
LOW: $35.00
MEDIAN: $35.00
CONSENSUS: $35.00
UPSIDE: 7.56%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Cyclical & Capital-Intensive 70% confidence

Primary model: Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild
Trading 5.8% below fair value
Current Price $32.54
Bear Case $24.74 24.0% downside ($24.74 - $32.54) / $32.54 = -24.0% $2.44 × 12x + net cash
Fair Value $34.54 6.1% upside ($34.54 - $32.54) / $32.54 = 6.1% $2.44 × 16x + net cash
Bull Case $44.33 36.2% upside ($44.33 - $32.54) / $32.54 = 36.2% $2.44 × 20x + net cash

Adjust Assumptions

16.0x
2.44$

Key Value Driver

Through-cycle normalized EPS ($2.44)

Implied Market Multiple 13.3x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $35.00 from 6 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $34.54 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Price-to-book value of 9.0x is above the normal range for this type of business (0.7x-2.0x). The stock may already price in a strong cycle.

Key Risks

  • Standard 10-year DCF produces unreliable terminal values for cyclicals
  • 'Cheap' P/E at cycle peak is the most common value trap — normalize first
  • Captive finance subsidiaries have different risk profiles from manufacturing